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Accrington ST vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Barnsley
Barnsley
11/17/2018League OneLeague One · Round 18The Crown Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Accrington ST35%
×Draw25%
Barnsley41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.39
Barnsley
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 118 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
1.47
Barnsley
1.59

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.44
Barnsley
1.31

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
59%
Accrington ST or Barnsley
75%
Draw or Barnsley
65%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
16%
Barnsley wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
75%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
40%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
16%
Barnsley 1+ goals
78%
Barnsley 2+ goals
45%
Barnsley 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
46%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.47 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Accrington ST defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Accrington ST scores more
35%
level
25%
Barnsley scores more
41%

Barnsley at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Accrington ST 0–2 Barnsley

Barnsley beat Accrington ST 2-0 in League One on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at The Crown Ground in Accrington.