Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Accra Lions vs Nsoatreman — Premier League 2019

Accra Lions
Accra Lions
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nsoatreman
Nsoatreman
12/18/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Accra Lions56%
×Draw26%
Nsoatreman18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accra Lions
1.48
Nsoatreman
0.71

Accra Lions creates 108% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

creates per match

Accra Lions
1.32
Nsoatreman
0.58

allows per match

Accra Lions
0.84
Nsoatreman
1.64

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par
Nsoatreman+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Nsoatreman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw
82%
Accra Lions or Nsoatreman
74%
Draw or Nsoatreman
44%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+
29%
Nsoatreman wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals
77%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
43%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
19%
Nsoatreman 1+ goals
51%
Nsoatreman 2+ goals
16%
Nsoatreman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)
76%
Nsoatreman (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Nsoatreman away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.32 + Nsoatreman defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Nsoatreman attack 0.58 + Accra Lions defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Accra Lions scores more
56%
level
26%
Nsoatreman scores more
18%

Accra Lions at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Accra Lions vs Nsoatreman

Accra Lions beat Nsoatreman 2-1 in Premier League on December 18, 2023.

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.