Academico Viseu 1–0 Academica: Result & Stats

Academico Viseu

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Academica

P. Ayongo 31' (pen)

10/2/2021

Segunda Liga · Round 7Estádio Municipal do Fontelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Academico Viseu41%

×Draw28%

Academica31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academico ViseuExpected goals in this matchAcademica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.08

Academico Viseu

1.27

Academica

1.08

Academico Viseu creates 18% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 66 away

1.26

creates per match

1.05

1.11

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Academico Viseu

1.26

Academica

1.05

allows per match

Academico Viseu

1.11

Academica

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Academica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academico Viseu ↓

Academica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Academico Viseu or draw

69%

Academico Viseu or Academica

72%

Draw or Academica

59%

Winning margin

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

18%

Academica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

72%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

36%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

14%

Academica 1+ goals

66%

Academica 2+ goals

29%

Academica 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

56%

Academica (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academico Viseu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 132 matches

Academica away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academico Viseu attack 1.26 + Academica defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Academica attack 1.05 + Academico Viseu defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Academico Viseu scores more

41%

level

28%

Academica scores more

31%

Academico Viseu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Reko

22'

Fábio Vianna

30'

Pedro Justiniano

31'

P. AyongoPenalty

38'

45+3'

46'

47'

55'

57'

Mimito Biai← Reko

66'

Fernando Ferreira← P. Ayongo

66'

Hugo Seco← S. Fatai

73'

João Vasco

74'

Tomás Costa← João Pedro

76'

Fernando Ferreira

76'

Famana Quizera← Luisinho

86'

André Claro← D. Nussbaumer

86'

Ericson← Pana

86'

Igor Milioransa← Vítor Bruno

90+1'

Famana Quizera

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AcademicoAcademica

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots8

6Corners3

17Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots8

4On Target1

5Off Target7

Passing

44%Possession56%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls12

6Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides8