Academica 1–2 Academico Viseu: Result & Stats

Academica

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Academico Viseu

João Carlos 74'

Ricardo Machado 83'

D. Nussbaumer 33'

2/28/2022

Segunda Liga · Round 24Estádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Academica40%

×Draw27%

Academico Viseu33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AcademicaExpected goals in this matchAcademico Viseu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.16

Academica

1.31

Academico Viseu

1.16

Academica creates 13% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 134 away

1.25

creates per match

1.16

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Academica

1.25

Academico Viseu

1.16

allows per match

Academica

1.16

Academico Viseu

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academica+0.00on par

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Academico Viseu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Academica or draw

67%

Academica or Academico Viseu

73%

Draw or Academico Viseu

60%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+

18%

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals

73%

Academica 2+ goals

38%

Academica 3+ goals

14%

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

69%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

32%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)

55%

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.36 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.25 + Academico Viseu defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Academico Viseu attack 1.16 + Academica defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Academica scores more

40%

level

27%

Academico Viseu scores more

33%

Academica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

D. Nussbaumer

40'

Pedro Monteiro

42'

Ricardo Dias

46'

David Sualehe← Hugo Seco

46'

J. Toro← Fábio Vianna

58'

Mimito Biai← Ricardo Dias

68'

S. Fatai← Tomás Costa

74'

Vítor Bruno← Adílio Santos

74'

João Carlos

79'

André Claro

80'

Ericson Duarte

80'

Famana Quizera← André Claro

82'

83'

83'

85'

90+2'

90+6'

90+2'

Rafael Fonseca← D. Nussbaumer

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AcademicaAcademico

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots10

11Corners8

11Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots10

4On Target7

7Off Target3

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls16

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards0

1Offsides6