Academica 1–0 Varzim: Result & Stats

Academica

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Varzim

M. Bouldini 76'

11/23/2020

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Academica42%

×Draw25%

Varzim33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AcademicaExpected goals in this matchVarzim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.29

Academica

1.48

Varzim

1.29

Academica creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.33

creates per match

1.25

1.33

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Academica

1.33

Varzim

1.25

allows per match

Academica

1.33

Varzim

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academica+0.00on par

Varzim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Varzim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Academica or draw

67%

Academica or Varzim

75%

Draw or Varzim

58%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+

20%

Varzim wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals

77%

Academica 2+ goals

43%

Academica 3+ goals

19%

Varzim 1+ goals

72%

Varzim 2+ goals

37%

Varzim 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)

56%

Varzim (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Varzim away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.33 + Varzim defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Varzim attack 1.25 + Academica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Academica scores more

42%

level

25%

Varzim scores more

33%

Academica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

J. Rentería← Lessinho

71'

Mimito Biai← Guima

76'

M. Bouldini

79'

André Vieira← Rui Moreira

81'

Filipe Chaby← Fabinho

90'

Michael Douglas← A. Tembeng

90'

Y. Tunç← S. Fatai

Academica4-4-2

Varzim4-3-3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Rui Borges

71'▲Mimito Biai←▼Guima

81'▲Filipe Chaby←▼Fabinho

Academica substitutes

BiaiChabyCostaAzevedoPereiraViannaFurtado

Manager: Miguel Leal

65'▲J. Rentería←▼Lessinho

79'▲André Vieira←▼Rui Moreira

90'▲Michael Douglas←▼A. Tembeng

90'▲Y. Tunç←▼S. Fatai

Varzim substitutes

RenteríaVieiraDouglasTunçPinheiroMoreiraNunes

Taça de Portugal: Academica 1–0 Varzim

Academica beat Varzim 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 23, 2020.

Goals: M. Bouldini (76').

The match was played at Estádio EFAPEL in Coimbra.

Academica vs Varzim — Taça de Portugal 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Taça de Portugal: Academica 1–0 Varzim