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Academica vs Portimonense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Academica
Academica
FT
2 – 1
Portimonense
Portimonense
D. Djousse 89'
Hwang Mun-Ki 53'
J. Martinez 88'
10/19/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Academica29%
×Draw25%
Portimonense46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academica
1.23
Portimonense
1.60

Portimonense creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Academica
1.33
Portimonense
1.86

allows per match

Academica
1.33
Portimonense
1.14

finishing

Academica+0.00on par
Portimonense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Portimonense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Academica or draw
54%
Academica or Portimonense
75%
Draw or Portimonense
71%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+
12%
Portimonense wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals
71%
Academica 2+ goals
35%
Academica 3+ goals
13%
Portimonense 1+ goals
80%
Portimonense 2+ goals
47%
Portimonense 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)
39%
Portimonense (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Portimonense away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.33 + Portimonense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Portimonense attack 1.86 + Academica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Academica scores more
29%
level
25%
Portimonense scores more
46%

Portimonense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portimonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
B. Osei
24'
D. Lacerda
45'
J. Martinez
53'
Hwang Mun-Ki
80'
L. Silva
88'
J. Martinez
89'
D. Djousse

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Academica vs Portimonense

Academica beat Portimonense 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 19, 2019.

Goals: Hwang Mun-Ki (53'), J. Martinez (88'), D. Djousse (89').

The match was played at Estádio EFAPEL in Coimbra.