Academica 0–0 Portimonense: Result & Stats

Academica

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Portimonense

8/24/2016

Segunda Liga · Round 4Estádio EFAPEL (Coimbra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Academica44%

×Draw27%

Portimonense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AcademicaExpected goals in this matchPortimonense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.05

Academica

1.35

Portimonense

1.05

Academica creates 29% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 40 away

1.22

creates per match

0.97

1.13

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Academica

1.22

Portimonense

0.97

allows per match

Academica

1.13

Portimonense

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academica+0.00on par

Portimonense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Portimonense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Academica or draw

71%

Academica or Portimonense

73%

Draw or Portimonense

56%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+

20%

Portimonense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals

74%

Academica 2+ goals

39%

Academica 3+ goals

15%

Portimonense 1+ goals

65%

Portimonense 2+ goals

28%

Portimonense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)

60%

Portimonense (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 63 matches

Portimonense away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.48 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.22 + Portimonense defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.35

Portimonense attack 0.97 + Academica defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Academica scores more

44%

level

27%

Portimonense scores more

29%

Academica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff