Academia Cantolao vs Deportivo Coopsol — Segunda División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 29+ matches
Academia Cantolao40%
Deportivo Coopsol34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Academia Cantolao creates 10% more chances
Season form · 29 home / 91 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Academia Cantolao ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Academia Cantolao at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches
Deportivo Coopsol away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Academia Cantolao attack 1.14 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38
Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.18 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.26
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Academia Cantolao at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Academia Cantolao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Cesar Vallejo
Carlos A. Mannucci
Cienciano
Union Huaral
Deportivo Hualgayoc
Juan Aurich
Alianza Atletico
Atletico GrauDeportivo Coopsol
LOS Caimanes
Sport Victoria
Sport Loreto
Alfredo Salinas
Serrato PacasmayoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Academia Cantolao host Deportivo Coopsol on Saturday, 13 July 2024 at 20:30. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Academia Cantolao vs Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol beat Academia Cantolao 2-1 in Segunda División on July 13, 2024.
The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.