Academia Anzoátegui 1–2 Marítimo: Result & Stats

Academia Anzoátegui

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Marítimo

9/10/2023

Segunda División · Clausura - 11Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Academia Anzoátegui40%

×Draw30%

Marítimo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academia AnzoáteguiExpected goals in this matchMarítimo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.95

Academia Anzoátegui

1.15

Marítimo

0.95

Academia Anzoátegui creates 21% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 55 away

1.23

creates per match

1.22

0.68

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Academia Anzoátegui

1.23

Marítimo

1.22

allows per match

Academia Anzoátegui

0.68

Marítimo

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academia Anzoátegui+0.00on par

Marítimo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Anzoátegui ↓

Marítimo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Academia Anzoátegui or draw

70%

Academia Anzoátegui or Marítimo

70%

Draw or Marítimo

60%

Winning margin

Academia Anzoátegui wins by 2+

17%

Marítimo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Academia Anzoátegui 1+ goals

68%

Academia Anzoátegui 2+ goals

32%

Academia Anzoátegui 3+ goals

11%

Marítimo 1+ goals

61%

Marítimo 2+ goals

25%

Marítimo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Academia Anzoátegui (draw refunded)

57%

Marítimo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Anzoátegui at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.68 · 44 matches

Marítimo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Anzoátegui attack 1.23 + Marítimo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Marítimo attack 1.22 + Academia Anzoátegui defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Academia Anzoátegui scores more

40%

level

30%

Marítimo scores more

30%

Academia Anzoátegui at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Academia Anzoátegui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff