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AC Oulu vs AC Kajaani — Suomen Cup 2018

AC Oulu
AC Oulu
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
AC Kajaani
AC Kajaani
2/1/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 2Heinäpään halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AC Oulu74%
×Draw16%
AC Kajaani10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Oulu
2.40
AC Kajaani
0.74

AC Oulu creates 224% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

AC Oulu
2.00
AC Kajaani
0.80

allows per match

AC Oulu
0.69
AC Kajaani
2.80

finishing

AC Oulu+0.00on par
AC Kajaani+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

AC Kajaani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw
90%
AC Oulu or AC Kajaani
84%
Draw or AC Kajaani
26%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+
51%
AC Kajaani wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals
91%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
69%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
42%
AC Kajaani 1+ goals
52%
AC Kajaani 2+ goals
17%
AC Kajaani 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)
88%
AC Kajaani (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

AC Kajaani away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 2.00 + AC Kajaani defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

AC Kajaani attack 0.80 + AC Oulu defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

AC Oulu scores more
74%
level
16%
AC Kajaani scores more
10%

AC Oulu at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AC Oulu vs AC Kajaani

AC Oulu beat AC Kajaani 3-1 in Suomen Cup on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Heinäpään halli in Oulu.