Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AC Oulu vs AC Kajaani — Ykkönen 2018

AC Oulu
AC Oulu
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
AC Kajaani
AC Kajaani
6/25/2019YkkönenYkkönen · Round 6Raatin stadion (Oulu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

AC Oulu51%
×Draw23%
AC Kajaani26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Oulu
1.83
AC Kajaani
1.24

AC Oulu creates 48% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

creates per match

AC Oulu
1.49
AC Kajaani
1.64

allows per match

AC Oulu
0.85
AC Kajaani
2.18

finishing

AC Oulu+0.00on par
AC Kajaani+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

AC Kajaani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw
74%
AC Oulu or AC Kajaani
77%
Draw or AC Kajaani
49%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+
28%
AC Kajaani wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals
84%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
54%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
28%
AC Kajaani 1+ goals
71%
AC Kajaani 2+ goals
35%
AC Kajaani 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)
66%
AC Kajaani (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

AC Kajaani away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 1.49 + AC Kajaani defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.83

AC Kajaani attack 1.64 + AC Oulu defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

AC Oulu scores more
51%
level
23%
AC Kajaani scores more
26%

AC Oulu at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: AC Oulu 2–2 AC Kajaani

AC Oulu and AC Kajaani drew 2-2 in Ykkönen on June 25, 2019.

The match was played at Raatin stadion (Oulu).