AC Milan 1–1 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

AC Milan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Udinese

K. Piątek 44'

K. Lasagna 64'

4/2/2019

Serie A · Round 30San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

AC Milan49%

×Draw25%

Udinese26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC MilanExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.08

AC Milan

1.60

Udinese

1.08

AC Milan creates 48% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

1.64

creates per match

1.05

1.12

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

AC Milan

1.64

Udinese

1.05

allows per match

AC Milan

1.12

Udinese

1.57

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

AC Milan-0.17scores less

Udinese+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw

74%

AC Milan or Udinese

75%

Draw or Udinese

51%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+

26%

Udinese wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals

80%

AC Milan 2+ goals

47%

AC Milan 3+ goals

22%

Udinese 1+ goals

66%

Udinese 2+ goals

29%

Udinese 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)

66%

Udinese (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.12 · 30 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.57 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.64 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Udinese attack 1.05 + AC Milan defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AC Milan scores more

49%

level

25%

Udinese scores more

26%

AC Milan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

R. de Paul

Udinese · M

8.3

Match Events

11'

Pepe Reina← G. Donnarumma

41'

Samu Castillejo← Lucas Paquetá

44'

K. Piątek

46'

B. Wilmot← Samir

55'

S. Okaka← H. ter Avest

64'

K. Lasagna↳ S. Fofana

67'

D. Calabria← I. Abate

76'

R. Mandragora← V. Behrami

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ACUdinese

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots7

7Corners5

14Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots7

6On Target2

5Off Target4

7Blocked1

12Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

483Total Passes373

402Accurate Passes282

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls12