Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AC Milan vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
T. Pobega 77'
P. Kalulu 30'
T. Abraham 90+3'
Ibañez 87'
1/8/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 17Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

AC Milan43%
×Draw25%
AS Roma32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.51
AS Roma
1.27

AC Milan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 22 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.67
AS Roma
1.40

allows per match

AC Milan
1.15
AS Roma
1.35

finishing

AC Milan-0.24scores less
AS Roma-0.08on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
68%
AC Milan or AS Roma
75%
Draw or AS Roma
57%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
21%
AS Roma wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
78%
AC Milan 2+ goals
44%
AC Milan 3+ goals
19%
AS Roma 1+ goals
72%
AS Roma 2+ goals
36%
AS Roma 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
57%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.15 · 28 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.35 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.67 + AS Roma defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.51

AS Roma attack 1.40 + AC Milan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AC Milan scores more
43%
level
25%
AS Roma scores more
32%

AC Milan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
S. TonaliAC MilanAC Milan · M
7.7

Match Events

9'
Zeki Çelik
26'
Rafael Leão
30'
Nicola Zalewski
30'
P. Kalulu↳ S. Tonali
45'
Nicolò Zaniolo
62'
Ismaël Bennacer
65'
N. Matić← B. Cristante
66'
B. Tahirovic← N. Zaniolo
68'
Fikayo Tomori
70'
T. Pobega← Brahim Díaz
72'
Sandro Tonali
74'
A. Vranckx← I. Bennacer
77'
T. Pobega↳ Rafael Leão
78'
S. El Shaarawy← Z. Çelik
82'
Roger Ibañez
85'
C. De Ketelaere← O. Giroud
85'
M. Gabbia← A. Saelemaekers
87'
Ibañez↳ L. Pellegrini
89'
A. Belotti← G. Mancini
90+6'
Tammy Abraham
90+1'
Nemanja Matić
90+3'
T. Abraham

Possession

61%AC

Shots

12AC

Pass accuracy

51%AC

Statistics

ACAS
Overview
61%Possession39%
12Total Shots12
3Corners4
19Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots12
5On Target3
6Off Target4
1Blocked5
7Inside Box4
5Outside Box8
Passing
61%Possession39%
507Total Passes316
438Accurate Passes255
86%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls13
4Yellow Cards6
0Offsides1

Serie A: AC Milan 2–2 AS Roma

AC Milan and AS Roma drew 2-2 in Serie A on January 8, 2023.

Goals: P. Kalulu (30'), T. Pobega (77'), Ibañez (87'), T. Abraham (90+3').

AC Milan controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.