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AC Milan vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
AS Roma
AS Roma
Z. Ibrahimović 79' (pen), 2'
A. Saelemaekers 47'
M. Kumbulla 84'
J. Veretout 71' (pen)
E. Džeko 14'
10/26/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 5Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

AC Milan44%
×Draw26%
AS Roma31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.49
AS Roma
1.21

AC Milan creates 23% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.64
AS Roma
1.32

allows per match

AC Milan
1.10
AS Roma
1.34

finishing

AC Milan-0.12scores less
AS Roma-0.09on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
69%
AC Milan or AS Roma
74%
Draw or AS Roma
56%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
21%
AS Roma wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
77%
AC Milan 2+ goals
44%
AC Milan 3+ goals
19%
AS Roma 1+ goals
70%
AS Roma 2+ goals
34%
AS Roma 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
59%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.10 · 33 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.64 + AS Roma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.49

AS Roma attack 1.32 + AC Milan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AC Milan scores more
44%
level
26%
AS Roma scores more
31%

AC Milan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
H. ÇalhanoğluAC MilanAC Milan · M
8.2

Match Events

2'
Z. Ibrahimović↳ Rafael Leão
14'
E. Džeko↳ L. Pellegrini
47'
A. Saelemaekers↳ Rafael Leão
66'
Bruno Peres← R. Karsdorp
70'
Rafael Leão
71'
J. VeretoutPenalty
72'
R. Krunić← A. Saelemaekers
72'
Samu Castillejo← Rafael Leão
75'
Zlatan Ibrahimović
76'
B. Cristante← L. Pellegrini
77'
Pedro
79'
Z. IbrahimovićPenalty
81'
Bryan Cristante
82'
Theo Hernández
84'
M. Kumbulla
86'
Gonzalo Villar← J. Veretout

Possession

53%AC

Shots

13AC

Pass accuracy

51%AC

Statistics

ACAS
Overview
53%Possession47%
13Total Shots12
7Corners7
14Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots12
8On Target7
2Off Target2
3Blocked3
11Inside Box8
2Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
500Total Passes433
434Accurate Passes370
87%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls15
3Yellow Cards2
7Offsides1

Match Recap: AC Milan vs AS Roma

AC Milan and AS Roma drew 3-3 in Serie A on October 26, 2020.

Goals: Z. Ibrahimović (2', 79' pen), E. Džeko (14'), A. Saelemaekers (47'), J. Veretout (71' pen), M. Kumbulla (84').

AC Milan controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.