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AC Milan vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
H. Calhanoglu 89' (pen)
A. Rebic 76'
6/28/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 28Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

AC Milan44%
×Draw26%
AS Roma31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.49
AS Roma
1.21

AC Milan creates 23% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.64
AS Roma
1.32

allows per match

AC Milan
1.10
AS Roma
1.34

finishing

AC Milan-0.12scores less
AS Roma-0.09on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
69%
AC Milan or AS Roma
74%
Draw or AS Roma
56%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
21%
AS Roma wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
77%
AC Milan 2+ goals
44%
AC Milan 3+ goals
19%
AS Roma 1+ goals
70%
AS Roma 2+ goals
34%
AS Roma 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
59%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.10 · 33 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.64 + AS Roma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.49

AS Roma attack 1.32 + AC Milan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AC Milan scores more
44%
level
26%
AS Roma scores more
31%

AC Milan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
Theo HernándezAC MilanAC Milan · D
7.3

Match Events

23'
L. Pellegrini
41'
S. Castillejo
54'
S. Castillejo← A. Saelemaekers
54'
G. Bonaventura← L. Paqueta
58'
J. Kluivert← C. Perez
62'
A. Rebic
69'
E. Dzeko← N. Kalinic
69'
H. Mkhitaryan← D. Perotti
76'
A. Rebic
78'
A. Rebic← R. Leao
81'
L. Pellegrini← A. Diawara
81'
B. Cristante← J. Pastore
89'
H. CalhanogluPenalty
90+1'
J. Veretout

Possession

57%AC

Shots

13AC

Pass accuracy

51%AC

Statistics

ACAS
Overview
57%Possession43%
13Total Shots5
5Corners6
9Fouls17
Shots
13Total Shots5
6On Target1
4Off Target2
3Blocked2
7Inside Box3
6Outside Box2
Passing
57%Possession43%
549Total Passes404
475Accurate Passes334
87%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls17
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: AC Milan vs AS Roma

AC Milan beat AS Roma 2-0 in Serie A on June 28, 2020.

Goals: A. Rebic (76'), H. Calhanoglu (89' pen).

AC Milan controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.