AC Milan 2–1 AS Roma: Result & Stats | Serie A

AC Milan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

AS Roma

8/31/2018

Serie A · Round 3San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

AC Milan44%

×Draw26%

AS Roma31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC MilanExpected goals in this matchAS Roma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.21

AC Milan

1.49

AS Roma

1.21

AC Milan creates 23% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

1.64

creates per match

1.32

1.10

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

AC Milan

1.64

AS Roma

1.32

allows per match

AC Milan

1.10

AS Roma

1.34

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

AC Milan-0.12scores less

AS Roma-0.09on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

AS Roma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw

69%

AC Milan or AS Roma

74%

Draw or AS Roma

56%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+

21%

AS Roma wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals

77%

AC Milan 2+ goals

44%

AC Milan 3+ goals

19%

AS Roma 1+ goals

70%

AS Roma 2+ goals

34%

AS Roma 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)

59%

AS Roma (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.10 · 33 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.64 + AS Roma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.49

AS Roma attack 1.32 + AC Milan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AC Milan scores more

44%

level

26%

AS Roma scores more

31%

AC Milan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff