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AC Horsens vs Randers FC — Superliga 2018

AC Horsens
AC Horsens
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Randers FC
Randers FC
M. Lassen 90+2'
A. Sigurðarson 71' (pen), 49' (pen)
J. Gemmer 38'
A. Andersson 35' (OG)
M. Egho 37'
11/4/2022SuperligaSuperliga · Round 16Nordstern Arena Horsens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

AC Horsens35%
×Draw25%
Randers FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Horsens
1.36
Randers FC
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 133 away

creates per match

AC Horsens
1.21
Randers FC
1.24

allows per match

AC Horsens
1.70
Randers FC
1.52

finishing

AC Horsens+0.00on par
Randers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Horsens ↓

Randers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AC Horsens or draw
60%
AC Horsens or Randers FC
75%
Draw or Randers FC
65%

Winning margin

AC Horsens wins by 2+
16%
Randers FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

AC Horsens 1+ goals
74%
AC Horsens 2+ goals
39%
AC Horsens 3+ goals
16%
Randers FC 1+ goals
77%
Randers FC 2+ goals
43%
Randers FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

AC Horsens (draw refunded)
47%
Randers FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Horsens at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 63 matches

Randers FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.52 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Horsens attack 1.21 + Randers FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

Randers FC attack 1.24 + AC Horsens defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AC Horsens scores more
35%
level
25%
Randers FC scores more
40%

Randers FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Randers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
J. DrachmannAC HorsensAC Horsens · M
7.9

Match Events

35'
A. AnderssonOwn goal
37'
M. Egho↳ D. Høegh
38'
J. Gemmer↳ T. Santos
45+1'
Anders Jacobsen
46'
M. Pedersen← F. Lauenborg
46'
H. Andersson← S. Graves
46'
T. Klysner← T. Kehinde
47'
Moses OpondoPenalty confirmed
48'
Hugo Andersson
49'
A. SigurðarsonPenalty
66'
A. Stankovic← P. Carlgren
71'
M. Hannesbo← L. Musonda
71'
D. Kruse← M. Opondo
71'
A. SigurðarsonPenalty
72'
E. Just← A. Sigurðarson
84'
Mikkel Mejlstrup Pedersen
86'
S. Makienok← A. Jacobsen
89'
F. Bundgaard← S. Odey
90+2'
S. Iyede← J. Drachmann
90+2'
M. Lassen↳ D. Kruse

Possession

47%AC

Shots

12AC

Pass accuracy

50%AC

Statistics

ACRanders
Overview
47%Possession53%
12Total Shots7
8Corners4
9Fouls5
Shots
12Total Shots7
8On Target2
4Off Target3
0Blocked2
11Inside Box3
1Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
421Total Passes491
302Accurate Passes360
72%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls5
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides3

Match Recap: AC Horsens vs Randers FC

AC Horsens beat Randers FC 5-1 in Superliga on November 4, 2022.

Goals: A. Andersson (35' o.g.), M. Egho (37'), J. Gemmer (38'), A. Sigurðarson (49' pen, 71' pen), M. Lassen (90+2').

Randers FC controlled possession (53%) and registered 7 shots to 12.

The match was played at Nordstern Arena Horsens in Horsens.