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AC Horsens vs Randers FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

AC Horsens
AC Horsens
FT
1 – 1
Randers FC
Randers FC
6/26/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3CASA Arena Horsens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

AC Horsens37%
×Draw25%
Randers FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Horsens
1.42
Randers FC
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

AC Horsens
1.33
Randers FC
1.63

allows per match

AC Horsens
1.22
Randers FC
1.50

finishing

AC Horsens+0.00on par
Randers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Horsens ↓

Randers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AC Horsens or draw
63%
AC Horsens or Randers FC
75%
Draw or Randers FC
63%

Winning margin

AC Horsens wins by 2+
17%
Randers FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

AC Horsens 1+ goals
76%
AC Horsens 2+ goals
41%
AC Horsens 3+ goals
17%
Randers FC 1+ goals
76%
Randers FC 2+ goals
41%
Randers FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

AC Horsens (draw refunded)
50%
Randers FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Horsens at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Randers FC away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Horsens attack 1.33 + Randers FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Randers FC attack 1.63 + AC Horsens defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

AC Horsens scores more
37%
level
25%
Randers FC scores more
37%

AC Horsens at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AC Horsens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AC Horsens vs Randers FC

AC Horsens and Randers FC drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at CASA Arena Horsens in Horsens.