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Aberdeen vs Dumbarton — League Cup 2018

Aberdeen
Aberdeen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
7/13/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 4Pittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Aberdeen84%
×Draw12%
Dumbarton5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aberdeen
2.71
Dumbarton
0.48

Aberdeen creates 465% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

creates per match

Aberdeen
2.70
Dumbarton
0.67

allows per match

Aberdeen
0.30
Dumbarton
2.73

finishing

Aberdeen+0.00on par
Dumbarton+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

Dumbarton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw
95%
Aberdeen or Dumbarton
88%
Draw or Dumbarton
16%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+
63%
Dumbarton wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals
93%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
75%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
50%
Dumbarton 1+ goals
38%
Dumbarton 2+ goals
8%
Dumbarton 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)
95%
Dumbarton (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.30 · 10 matches

Dumbarton away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 2.70 + Dumbarton defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.71

Dumbarton attack 0.67 + Aberdeen defence 0.30 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Aberdeen scores more
84%
level
12%
Dumbarton scores more
5%

Aberdeen at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Aberdeen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aberdeen vs Dumbarton

Aberdeen beat Dumbarton 2-0 in League Cup on July 13, 2022.

The match was played at Pittodrie Stadium in Aberdeen.