Aberdeen 1–0 Dumbarton: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Aberdeen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dumbarton

S. Cosgrove 86' (pen)

1/18/2020

FA Cup · 4th RoundPittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Aberdeen47%

×Draw27%

Dumbarton26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AberdeenExpected goals in this matchDumbarton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.00

Aberdeen

1.45

Dumbarton

1.00

Aberdeen creates 45% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

1.90

creates per match

1.50

0.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Aberdeen

1.90

Dumbarton

1.50

allows per match

Aberdeen

0.50

Dumbarton

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aberdeen+0.00on par

Dumbarton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

Dumbarton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw

74%

Aberdeen or Dumbarton

73%

Draw or Dumbarton

53%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+

23%

Dumbarton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals

77%

Aberdeen 2+ goals

42%

Aberdeen 3+ goals

18%

Dumbarton 1+ goals

63%

Dumbarton 2+ goals

26%

Dumbarton 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)

65%

Dumbarton (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Dumbarton away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 1.90 + Dumbarton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Dumbarton attack 1.50 + Aberdeen defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aberdeen scores more

47%

level

27%

Dumbarton scores more

26%

Aberdeen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aberdeen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'

R. Hedges← C. McLennan

74'

M. Zata← C. Wilson

78'

D. Campbell← D. McGeouch

86'

S. CosgrovePenalty

87'

C. Brennan

89'

R. Tierney← R. Langan

90+1'

J. Gallagher← B. Anderson

90+1'

C. Scullion← P. Crossan

Aberdeen

Dumbarton

1

22

5

3

2

14

8

4

▼

Langan

20

▼

Wilson

10

McCluskey

24

▼

1

4

2

14

5

22

10

17

▼

McGeouch

16

⚽

Cosgrove

18

▼

McLennan

25

▼

Anderson

Manager: D. McInnes

67'▲R. Hedges←▼C. McLennan

78'▲D. Campbell←▼D. McGeouch

90+1'▲J. Gallagher←▼B. Anderson

Aberdeen substitutes

11Hedges24Campbell21Gallagher28Wilson6Devlin9Main20Černý

Manager: J. Duffy

74'▲M. Zata←▼C. Wilson

89'▲R. Tierney←▼R. Langan

90+1'▲C. Scullion←▼P. Crossan

Dumbarton substitutes

16Zata9Tierney11Scullion12Pettigrew