ABC 2–4 Ferroviario: Result & Stats | Serie C

ABC

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Ferroviario

Anderson Rosa 29'

Hélio Paraíba 3'

Edson Caríus 70' (pen), 35', 20' (pen)

Michael 50'

6/2/2019

Serie C · Round 6Estádio Maria Lamas Farache (Natal, Rio Grande do Norte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

ABC49%

×Draw26%

Ferroviario25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchFerroviario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.97

ABC

1.47

Ferroviario

0.97

ABC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 46 away

1.35

creates per match

0.87

1.06

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

ABC

1.35

Ferroviario

0.87

allows per match

ABC

1.06

Ferroviario

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Ferroviario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Ferroviario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

ABC or draw

75%

ABC or Ferroviario

74%

Draw or Ferroviario

51%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

24%

Ferroviario wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

77%

ABC 2+ goals

43%

ABC 3+ goals

18%

Ferroviario 1+ goals

62%

Ferroviario 2+ goals

25%

Ferroviario 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

66%

Ferroviario (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Ferroviario away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.35 + Ferroviario defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

Ferroviario attack 0.87 + ABC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ABC scores more

49%

level

26%

Ferroviario scores more

25%

ABC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Hélio Paraíba

20'

Edson CaríusPenalty

29'

Anderson Rosa

35'

Edson Caríus

46'

Ivan← Maicon Campagnolo

50'

Michael

60'

Luan Ferreira← Jefinho

61'

Jonathas← Leanderson

70'

Edson CaríusPenalty

72'

Wanderson← Jackson Caucaia

75'

Isaac← Edson Caríus

83'

Juninho Arcanjo← Mazinho

ABC

Ferroviario

⚽

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: Sérgio Soares

46'▲Ivan←▼Maicon Campagnolo

60'▲Luan Ferreira←▼Jefinho

72'▲Wanderson←▼Jackson Caucaia

ABC substitutes

IvanFerreiraWandersonSauloAndersonPedraEvandroHenriqueWendersonXavierYanSagredo

Manager: Marcelo Vilar

61'▲Jonathas←▼Leanderson

75'▲Isaac←▼Edson Caríus

83'▲Juninho Arcanjo←▼Mazinho

Ferroviario substitutes

JonathasIsaacArcanjoLimaFernandoCesarValdeciZeca