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ABC vs 4 de Julho — Serie D 2018

ABC
ABCadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
4 de Julho
4 de Julho
10/3/2021Serie DSerie D · Round of 16Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ABC64%
×Draw24%
4 de Julho12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABC
1.64
4 de Julho
0.56

ABC creates 193% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

creates per match

ABC
2.27
4 de Julho
0.58

allows per match

ABC
0.54
4 de Julho
1.00

finishing

ABC+0.00on par
4 de Julho+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

4 de Julho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

ABC or draw
88%
ABC or 4 de Julho
76%
Draw or 4 de Julho
36%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+
36%
4 de Julho wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals
81%
ABC 2+ goals
49%
ABC 3+ goals
23%
4 de Julho 1+ goals
43%
4 de Julho 2+ goals
11%
4 de Julho 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)
84%
4 de Julho (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.54 · 26 matches

4 de Julho away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 2.27 + 4 de Julho defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

4 de Julho attack 0.58 + ABC defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

ABC scores more
64%
level
24%
4 de Julho scores more
12%

ABC at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: ABC 2–0 4 de Julho

ABC beat 4 de Julho 2-0 in Serie D on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte.