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ABC vs 4 de Julho — Copa do Nordeste 2020

ABC
ABC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
4 de Julho
4 de Julho
4/7/2021Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 5Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ABC46%
×Draw26%
4 de Julho28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABC
1.51
4 de Julho
1.13

ABC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 4 away

creates per match

ABC
1.77
4 de Julho
1.25

allows per match

ABC
1.00
4 de Julho
1.25

finishing

ABC+0.00on par
4 de Julho+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

4 de Julho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

ABC or draw
72%
ABC or 4 de Julho
74%
Draw or 4 de Julho
54%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+
23%
4 de Julho wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals
78%
ABC 2+ goals
44%
ABC 3+ goals
19%
4 de Julho 1+ goals
68%
4 de Julho 2+ goals
31%
4 de Julho 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)
62%
4 de Julho (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

4 de Julho away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.77 + 4 de Julho defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.51

4 de Julho attack 1.25 + ABC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ABC scores more
46%
level
26%
4 de Julho scores more
28%

ABC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ABC vs 4 de Julho

ABC and 4 de Julho drew 2-2 in Copa do Nordeste on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte.