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ABB vs Blooming — Primera División 2026

ABB
ABB
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Blooming
Blooming
6/30/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 12Estadio Municipal de El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

ABB50%
×Draw23%
Blooming27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABB
1.86
Blooming
1.30

ABB creates 43% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 129 away

creates per match

ABB
1.40
Blooming
1.00

allows per match

ABB
1.60
Blooming
2.33

finishing

ABB+0.00on par
Blooming+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABB ↓

Blooming →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

ABB or draw
73%
ABB or Blooming
77%
Draw or Blooming
50%

Winning margin

ABB wins by 2+
28%
Blooming wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ABB 1+ goals
84%
ABB 2+ goals
55%
ABB 3+ goals
28%
Blooming 1+ goals
73%
Blooming 2+ goals
37%
Blooming 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ABB (draw refunded)
65%
Blooming (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABB at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Blooming away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABB attack 1.40 + Blooming defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Blooming attack 1.00 + ABB defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ABB scores more
50%
level
23%
Blooming scores more
27%

ABB at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "ABB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: ABB 1–1 Blooming

ABB and Blooming drew 1-1 in Primera División on June 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Alto in El Alto.