Abahani 0–1 Brothers Union: Result & Stats

Abahani

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Brothers Union

12/9/2025

Federation Cup · Round 2Sheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Abahani80%

×Draw14%

Brothers Union5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AbahaniExpected goals in this matchBrothers Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.45

Abahani

2.38

Brothers Union

0.45

Abahani creates 429% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

2.27

creates per match

0.50

0.40

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Abahani

2.27

Brothers Union

0.50

allows per match

Abahani

0.40

Brothers Union

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abahani+0.00on par

Brothers Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani ↓

Brothers Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Abahani or draw

95%

Abahani or Brothers Union

86%

Draw or Brothers Union

20%

Winning margin

Abahani wins by 2+

57%

Brothers Union wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Abahani 1+ goals

91%

Abahani 2+ goals

68%

Abahani 3+ goals

42%

Brothers Union 1+ goals

36%

Brothers Union 2+ goals

8%

Brothers Union 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Abahani (draw refunded)

94%

Brothers Union (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Brothers Union away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani attack 2.27 + Brothers Union defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

Brothers Union attack 0.50 + Abahani defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Abahani scores more

80%

level

14%

Brothers Union scores more

5%

Abahani at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Abahani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff