Abahani 3–0 Brothers Union: Result & Stats

Abahani

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Brothers Union

5/27/2025

Premier League · Round 18Comilla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Abahani66%

×Draw19%

Brothers Union15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AbahaniExpected goals in this matchBrothers Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.98

Abahani

2.27

Brothers Union

0.98

Abahani creates 132% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 53 away

2.35

creates per match

1.06

0.90

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Abahani

2.35

Brothers Union

1.06

allows per match

Abahani

0.90

Brothers Union

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abahani+0.00on par

Brothers Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani ↓

Brothers Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Abahani or draw

85%

Abahani or Brothers Union

81%

Draw or Brothers Union

34%

Winning margin

Abahani wins by 2+

43%

Brothers Union wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Abahani 1+ goals

90%

Abahani 2+ goals

66%

Abahani 3+ goals

39%

Brothers Union 1+ goals

62%

Brothers Union 2+ goals

26%

Brothers Union 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Abahani (draw refunded)

81%

Brothers Union (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.90 · 77 matches

Brothers Union away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.19 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani attack 2.35 + Brothers Union defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.27

Brothers Union attack 1.06 + Abahani defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Abahani scores more

66%

level

19%

Brothers Union scores more

15%

Abahani at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Abahani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff