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Abahani vs Abahani Chittagong — Federation Cup 2020

Abahani
Abahani
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Abahani Chittagong
Abahani Chittagong
12/10/2024Federation CupFederation Cup · Group Stage - 1Comilla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Abahani74%
×Draw18%
Abahani Chittagong8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abahani
2.13
Abahani Chittagong
0.56

Abahani creates 280% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

creates per match

Abahani
2.27
Abahani Chittagong
0.73

allows per match

Abahani
0.40
Abahani Chittagong
2.00

finishing

Abahani+0.00on par
Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani ↓

Abahani Chittagong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Abahani or draw
92%
Abahani or Abahani Chittagong
82%
Draw or Abahani Chittagong
26%

Winning margin

Abahani wins by 2+
49%
Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Abahani 1+ goals
88%
Abahani 2+ goals
63%
Abahani 3+ goals
35%
Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals
43%
Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals
11%
Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Abahani (draw refunded)
90%
Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Abahani Chittagong away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani attack 2.27 + Abahani Chittagong defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Abahani Chittagong attack 0.73 + Abahani defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Abahani scores more
74%
level
18%
Abahani Chittagong scores more
8%

Abahani at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Abahani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Federation Cup: Abahani 3–0 Abahani Chittagong

Abahani beat Abahani Chittagong 3-0 in Federation Cup on December 10, 2024.

The match was played at Comilla Stadium in Comilla.