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Abahani Chittagong vs Abahani — Premier League 2019

Abahani Chittagong
Abahani Chittagong
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Abahani
Abahani
1/11/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Mymensingh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Abahani Chittagong24%
×Draw23%
Abahani53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abahani Chittagong
1.19
Abahani
1.88

Abahani creates 58% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 73 away

creates per match

Abahani Chittagong
1.20
Abahani
2.16

allows per match

Abahani Chittagong
1.60
Abahani
1.18

finishing

Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par
Abahani+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani Chittagong ↓

Abahani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Abahani Chittagong or draw
47%
Abahani Chittagong or Abahani
77%
Draw or Abahani
76%

Winning margin

Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+
10%
Abahani wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals
70%
Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals
33%
Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals
12%
Abahani 1+ goals
85%
Abahani 2+ goals
56%
Abahani 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)
31%
Abahani (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani Chittagong at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 65 matches

Abahani away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.18 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani Chittagong attack 1.20 + Abahani defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Abahani attack 2.16 + Abahani Chittagong defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Abahani Chittagong scores more
24%
level
23%
Abahani scores more
53%

Abahani at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Abahani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abahani Chittagong vs Abahani

Abahani beat Abahani Chittagong 4-0 in Premier League on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Mymensingh Stadium in Mymensingh.