Abahani Chittagong 1–1 Bashundhara Kings

Abahani Chittagong

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bashundhara Kings

4/29/2025

Federation Cup · Grand FinalMymensingh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Abahani Chittagong14%

×Draw20%

Bashundhara Kings67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Abahani ChittagongExpected goals in this matchBashundhara Kings

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

2.12

Abahani Chittagong

0.83

Bashundhara Kings

2.12

Bashundhara Kings creates 155% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

2.67

1.57

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Abahani Chittagong

1.00

Bashundhara Kings

2.67

allows per match

Abahani Chittagong

1.57

Bashundhara Kings

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par

Bashundhara Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani Chittagong ↓

Bashundhara Kings →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–111%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Abahani Chittagong or draw

33%

Abahani Chittagong or Bashundhara Kings

80%

Draw or Bashundhara Kings

86%

Winning margin

Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+

4%

Bashundhara Kings wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals

56%

Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals

20%

Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals

5%

Bashundhara Kings 1+ goals

88%

Bashundhara Kings 2+ goals

62%

Bashundhara Kings 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)

17%

Bashundhara Kings (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani Chittagong at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Bashundhara Kings away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani Chittagong attack 1.00 + Bashundhara Kings defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Bashundhara Kings attack 2.67 + Abahani Chittagong defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Abahani Chittagong scores more

14%

level

20%

Bashundhara Kings scores more

67%

Bashundhara Kings at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Bashundhara Kings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff