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Abahani Chittagong vs Bashundhara Kings — Premier League 2019

Abahani Chittagong
Abahani Chittagong
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Bashundhara Kings
Bashundhara Kings
4/5/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Abahani Chittagong18%
×Draw22%
Bashundhara Kings60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abahani Chittagong
0.95
Bashundhara Kings
1.92

Bashundhara Kings creates 102% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 76 away

creates per match

Abahani Chittagong
1.20
Bashundhara Kings
2.24

allows per match

Abahani Chittagong
1.60
Bashundhara Kings
0.70

finishing

Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par
Bashundhara Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani Chittagong ↓

Bashundhara Kings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Abahani Chittagong or draw
40%
Abahani Chittagong or Bashundhara Kings
78%
Draw or Bashundhara Kings
82%

Winning margin

Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+
6%
Bashundhara Kings wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals
61%
Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals
25%
Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals
7%
Bashundhara Kings 1+ goals
85%
Bashundhara Kings 2+ goals
57%
Bashundhara Kings 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)
23%
Bashundhara Kings (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani Chittagong at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 65 matches

Bashundhara Kings away — creates 2.24, concedes 0.70 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani Chittagong attack 1.20 + Bashundhara Kings defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.95

Bashundhara Kings attack 2.24 + Abahani Chittagong defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Abahani Chittagong scores more
18%
level
22%
Bashundhara Kings scores more
60%

Bashundhara Kings at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bashundhara Kings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Abahani Chittagong 0 – 5 Bashundhara Kings

Bashundhara Kings beat Abahani Chittagong 5-0 in Premier League on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium in Munshiganj.