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AB Copenhagen vs Skovshoved — Friendlies Clubs 2026

AB Copenhagen
AB Copenhagen
FT
3 – 2
Skovshoved
Skovshoved
3/1/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Akademisk Boldklub

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AB Copenhagen58%
×Draw20%
Skovshoved22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AB Copenhagen
2.21
Skovshoved
1.29

AB Copenhagen creates 71% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

AB Copenhagen
2.43
Skovshoved
1.00

allows per match

AB Copenhagen
1.57
Skovshoved
2.00

finishing

AB Copenhagen+0.00on par
Skovshoved+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AB Copenhagen ↓

Skovshoved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

AB Copenhagen or draw
78%
AB Copenhagen or Skovshoved
80%
Draw or Skovshoved
42%

Winning margin

AB Copenhagen wins by 2+
36%
Skovshoved wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AB Copenhagen 1+ goals
89%
AB Copenhagen 2+ goals
65%
AB Copenhagen 3+ goals
38%
Skovshoved 1+ goals
72%
Skovshoved 2+ goals
37%
Skovshoved 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)
73%
Skovshoved (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AB Copenhagen at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Skovshoved away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AB Copenhagen attack 2.43 + Skovshoved defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Skovshoved attack 1.00 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

AB Copenhagen scores more
58%
level
20%
Skovshoved scores more
22%

AB Copenhagen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "AB Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: AB Copenhagen 3–2 Skovshoved

AB Copenhagen beat Skovshoved 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Akademisk Boldklub in Bagsværd.