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AB Copenhagen vs Skovshoved — League #123 2026

AB Copenhagen
AB Copenhagen
FT
6 – 0
Skovshoved
Skovshoved
9/9/2018League #123League #123 · Round 7Gladsaxe Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AB Copenhagen67%
×Draw18%
Skovshoved15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AB Copenhagen
2.48
Skovshoved
1.10

AB Copenhagen creates 125% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

AB Copenhagen
2.43
Skovshoved
1.07

allows per match

AB Copenhagen
1.14
Skovshoved
2.53

finishing

AB Copenhagen+0.00on par
Skovshoved+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AB Copenhagen ↓

Skovshoved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

AB Copenhagen or draw
85%
AB Copenhagen or Skovshoved
82%
Draw or Skovshoved
33%

Winning margin

AB Copenhagen wins by 2+
45%
Skovshoved wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AB Copenhagen 1+ goals
92%
AB Copenhagen 2+ goals
70%
AB Copenhagen 3+ goals
44%
Skovshoved 1+ goals
67%
Skovshoved 2+ goals
30%
Skovshoved 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)
82%
Skovshoved (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AB Copenhagen at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Skovshoved away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AB Copenhagen attack 2.43 + Skovshoved defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.48

Skovshoved attack 1.07 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

AB Copenhagen scores more
67%
level
18%
Skovshoved scores more
15%

AB Copenhagen at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "AB Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AB Copenhagen vs Skovshoved

AB Copenhagen beat Skovshoved 6-0 in League #123 on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Gladsaxe Stadion in Søborg.