AB Copenhagen 3–2 FA 2000: Result & Stats

AB Copenhagen

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

FA 2000

11/18/2023

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 16Gladsaxe Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

AB Copenhagen56%

×Draw23%

FA 200021%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AB CopenhagenExpected goals in this matchFA 2000

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.02

AB Copenhagen

1.83

FA 2000

1.02

AB Copenhagen creates 79% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 35 away

2.01

creates per match

0.77

1.26

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

AB Copenhagen

2.01

FA 2000

0.77

allows per match

AB Copenhagen

1.26

FA 2000

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AB Copenhagen+0.00on par

FA 2000+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AB Copenhagen ↓

FA 2000 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

AB Copenhagen or draw

79%

AB Copenhagen or FA 2000

77%

Draw or FA 2000

44%

Winning margin

AB Copenhagen wins by 2+

32%

FA 2000 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

AB Copenhagen 1+ goals

84%

AB Copenhagen 2+ goals

54%

AB Copenhagen 3+ goals

28%

FA 2000 1+ goals

64%

FA 2000 2+ goals

27%

FA 2000 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)

73%

FA 2000 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AB Copenhagen at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

FA 2000 away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AB Copenhagen attack 2.01 + FA 2000 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.83

FA 2000 attack 0.77 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AB Copenhagen scores more

56%

level

23%

FA 2000 scores more

21%

AB Copenhagen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AB Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff