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Aarhus vs Aalborg — Superliga 2018

Aarhus
Aarhus
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aalborg
Aalborg
O. Diakhité 71' (OG)
P. Mortensen 51', 20'
M. Anderson 48'
2/23/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 19Ceres Park Vejlby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Aarhus63%
×Draw20%
Aalborg17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus
2.10
Aalborg
0.98

Aarhus creates 114% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

creates per match

Aarhus
2.15
Aalborg
0.82

allows per match

Aarhus
1.14
Aalborg
2.05

finishing

Aarhus-0.09on par
Aalborg-0.02on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus ↓

Aalborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Aarhus or draw
83%
Aarhus or Aalborg
80%
Draw or Aalborg
37%

Winning margin

Aarhus wins by 2+
39%
Aalborg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Aarhus 1+ goals
88%
Aarhus 2+ goals
62%
Aarhus 3+ goals
35%
Aalborg 1+ goals
62%
Aalborg 2+ goals
26%
Aalborg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Aarhus (draw refunded)
79%
Aalborg (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.14 · 18 matches

Aalborg away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.05 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus attack 2.15 + Aalborg defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.10

Aalborg attack 0.82 + Aarhus defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Aarhus scores more
63%
level
20%
Aalborg scores more
17%

Aarhus at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Aarhus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. AndersonAarhusAarhus · M
8.6

Match Events

20'
P. Mortensen↳ M. Anderson
31'
Lars Kramer
48'
M. Anderson↳ T. Bech
51'
P. Mortensen↳ N. Poulsen
56'
A. Jasson← O. Ross
56'
M. Widell← K. Davidsen
65'
T. Mølgaard← H. Dalsgaard
66'
Y. Badji← P. Mortensen
71'
O. DiakhitéOwn goal
74'
E. Kahl← M. Akoto
74'
M. Power← N. Poulsen
79'
M. Bomholt← M. Jiménez
79'
T. Hernes← I. Hansen-Aarøen
82'
T. Bach← G. Links
82'
A. Seydel← K. John
90+3'
Mads Bomholt

Possession

48%Aarhus

Shots

23Aarhus

Pass accuracy

50%Aarhus

Statistics

AarhusAalborg
Overview
48%Possession52%
23Total Shots2
2.95Expected Goals (xG)0.22
7Corners2
13Fouls6
Shots
23Total Shots2
10On Target2
7Off Target0
6Blocked0
16Inside Box2
7Outside Box0
Passing
48%Possession52%
386Total Passes422
312Accurate Passes347
81%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
13Fouls6
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Superliga: Aarhus 4–0 Aalborg

Aarhus beat Aalborg 4-0 in Superliga on February 23, 2025.

Goals: P. Mortensen (20', 51'), M. Anderson (48'), O. Diakhité (71' o.g.).

Aalborg controlled possession (52%) and registered 2 shots to 23.

The match was played at Ceres Park Vejlby in Risskov.