Aarhus 3–1 Aalborg: Result & Stats | Superliga

Aarhus

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aalborg

Kevin Yakob 72'

P. Mortensen 64', 52'

J. Pedersen 76'

9/17/2022

Superliga · Round 10Ceres Park & Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Aarhus63%

×Draw20%

Aalborg17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AarhusExpected goals in this matchAalborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.98

Aarhus

2.10

Aalborg

0.98

Aarhus creates 114% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

2.15

creates per match

0.82

1.14

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Aarhus

2.15

Aalborg

0.82

allows per match

Aarhus

1.14

Aalborg

2.05

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Aarhus-0.09on par

Aalborg-0.02on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus ↓

Aalborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Aarhus or draw

83%

Aarhus or Aalborg

80%

Draw or Aalborg

37%

Winning margin

Aarhus wins by 2+

39%

Aalborg wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Aarhus 1+ goals

88%

Aarhus 2+ goals

62%

Aarhus 3+ goals

35%

Aalborg 1+ goals

62%

Aalborg 2+ goals

26%

Aalborg 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Aarhus (draw refunded)

79%

Aalborg (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.14 · 18 matches

Aalborg away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.05 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus attack 2.15 + Aalborg defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.10

Aalborg attack 0.82 + Aarhus defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Aarhus scores more

63%

level

20%

Aalborg scores more

17%

Aarhus at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Aarhus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Kevin Yakob

Aarhus · M

8.9

Match Events

20'

Louka Prip

52'

P. Mortensen↳ Kevin Yakob

64'

P. Mortensen↳ Kevin Yakob

65'

O. Ross← L. Andersen

65'

J. Ahlmann← A. Poulsen

68'

T. Mølgaard← E. Kahl

68'

G. Links← A. DAlberto

72'

Kevin Yakob

74'

Nicolai Poulsen

75'

S. Grønning← S. Haugen

75'

F. Brandhof← Kevin Yakob

75'

J. Pedersen← Y. Bakiz

76'

J. Pedersen

85'

J. Duin← P. Mortensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AarhusAalborg

Overview

55%Possession45%

19Total Shots5

6Corners1

12Fouls7

Shots

19Total Shots5

9On Target3

6Off Target1

4Blocked1

14Inside Box4

5Outside Box1

Passing

55%Possession45%

531Total Passes449

452Accurate Passes356

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0