Aarhus Fremad 1–1 Kolding IF: Result & Stats

Aarhus Fremad

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kolding IF

S. Andreasen 67' (pen)

M. Vestergaard 40'

9/10/2022

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 6Riisvangen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Aarhus Fremad38%

×Draw25%

Kolding IF37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aarhus FremadExpected goals in this matchKolding IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.41

Aarhus Fremad

1.43

Kolding IF

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 33 away

2.01

creates per match

1.73

1.09

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad

2.01

Kolding IF

1.73

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad

1.09

Kolding IF

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad ↓

Kolding IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad or draw

63%

Aarhus Fremad or Kolding IF

75%

Draw or Kolding IF

62%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

18%

Kolding IF wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

76%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

42%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

17%

Kolding IF 1+ goals

76%

Kolding IF 2+ goals

41%

Kolding IF 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

51%

Kolding IF (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.09 · 78 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad attack 2.01 + Kolding IF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kolding IF attack 1.73 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aarhus Fremad scores more

38%

level

25%

Kolding IF scores more

37%

Aarhus Fremad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

M. Vestergaard

67'

S. AndreasenPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff