Aarhus Fremad II 5–1 Aalborg Freja: Result & Stats

Aarhus Fremad II

FT

5 – 1

Aalborg Freja

5/5/2016

League #126 · Round 20Riisvangen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Aarhus Fremad II75%

×Draw15%

Aalborg Freja11%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aarhus Fremad IIExpected goals in this matchAalborg Freja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.85

1.00

Aarhus Fremad II

2.85

Aalborg Freja

1.00

Aarhus Fremad II creates 185% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad II

2.50

Aalborg Freja

1.00

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad II

1.00

Aalborg Freja

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aarhus Fremad II+0.00on par

Aalborg Freja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad II ↓

Aalborg Freja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad II or draw

89%

Aarhus Fremad II or Aalborg Freja

85%

Draw or Aalborg Freja

25%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad II wins by 2+

54%

Aalborg Freja wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad II 1+ goals

94%

Aarhus Fremad II 2+ goals

77%

Aarhus Fremad II 3+ goals

53%

Aalborg Freja 1+ goals

63%

Aalborg Freja 2+ goals

26%

Aalborg Freja 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad II (draw refunded)

88%

Aalborg Freja (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Aalborg Freja away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad II attack 2.50 + Aalborg Freja defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.85

Aalborg Freja attack 1.00 + Aarhus Fremad II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Aarhus Fremad II scores more

75%

level

15%

Aalborg Freja scores more

11%

Aarhus Fremad II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff