Aalborg Freja 0–5 Aarhus Fremad II: Result & Stats

Aalborg Freja

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Aarhus Fremad II

3/7/2026

League #127 · Group 4 - 15Frejaparken kunstgræsbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Aalborg Freja15%

×Draw16%

Aarhus Fremad II68%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aalborg FrejaExpected goals in this matchAarhus Fremad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

2.77

Aalborg Freja

1.26

Aarhus Fremad II

2.77

Aarhus Fremad II creates 120% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

0.67

creates per match

2.54

3.00

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Aalborg Freja

0.67

Aarhus Fremad II

2.54

allows per match

Aalborg Freja

3.00

Aarhus Fremad II

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aalborg Freja+0.00on par

Aarhus Fremad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalborg Freja ↓

Aarhus Fremad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Aalborg Freja or draw

32%

Aalborg Freja or Aarhus Fremad II

84%

Draw or Aarhus Fremad II

85%

Winning margin

Aalborg Freja wins by 2+

6%

Aarhus Fremad II wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Aalborg Freja 1+ goals

72%

Aalborg Freja 2+ goals

36%

Aalborg Freja 3+ goals

13%

Aarhus Fremad II 1+ goals

94%

Aarhus Fremad II 2+ goals

76%

Aarhus Fremad II 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Aalborg Freja (draw refunded)

18%

Aarhus Fremad II (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalborg Freja at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Aarhus Fremad II away — creates 2.54, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalborg Freja attack 0.67 + Aarhus Fremad II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.26

Aarhus Fremad II attack 2.54 + Aalborg Freja defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Aalborg Freja scores more

15%

level

16%

Aarhus Fremad II scores more

68%

Aarhus Fremad II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff