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Aalesund vs Viking — Eliteserien 2026

Aalesund
Aalesund
Preview
17:15
Viking
Viking
7/26/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 15Color Line Stadion
Big match
45%
Viking
model favours
31%24%45%

Aalesund score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Aalesund31%
×Draw24%
Viking45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund
1.33
Viking
1.67

Viking creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Aalesund
1.57
Viking
1.59

allows per match

Aalesund
1.74
Viking
1.09

finishing

Aalesund-0.40scores less
Viking+0.55scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Viking →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw
55%
Aalesund or Viking
76%
Draw or Viking
69%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+
13%
Viking wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals
74%
Aalesund 2+ goals
38%
Aalesund 3+ goals
15%
Viking 1+ goals
81%
Viking 2+ goals
50%
Viking 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)
40%
Viking (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.74 · 6 matches

Viking away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 1.57 + Viking defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Viking attack 1.59 + Aalesund defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aalesund scores more
31%
level
24%
Viking scores more
45%

Viking at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Aalesund have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 73% of Aalesund’s matches
  • Aalesund sit 14, Viking 2 in the table
  • Viking outscore their xG (2.4 vs 1.7 expected)
  • Aalesund fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Aalesund
Balanced
Viking
Attack-heavy
44%Possession52%
76%Pass accuracy81%
12.8Shots15.2
1.35xGBiggest gap1.71
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AalesundViking

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Aalesund
0
Draws
3
Viking
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 60%
2–10–10–41–32–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Aalesund
LDWDD
Viking
LDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Aalesund host Viking

July 26, 2026: Aalesund take on Viking in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Aalesund host Viking at Color Line Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.