Aalesund 1–3 Stabaek: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Aalesund

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Stabaek

S. Nordli 42'

A. Hanche-Olsen 87' (pen)

O. Edvardsen 60'

K. Kinoshita 7'

7/19/2020

Eliteserien · Round 9Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Aalesund44%

×Draw22%

Stabaek34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalesundExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.67

Aalesund

1.94

Stabaek

1.67

Aalesund creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

1.73

creates per match

1.63

1.72

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Aalesund

1.73

Stabaek

1.63

allows per match

Aalesund

1.72

Stabaek

2.15

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

Aalesund-0.44scores less

Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw

66%

Aalesund or Stabaek

78%

Draw or Stabaek

56%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+

25%

Stabaek wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals

86%

Aalesund 2+ goals

58%

Aalesund 3+ goals

30%

Stabaek 1+ goals

81%

Stabaek 2+ goals

50%

Stabaek 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)

57%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.72 · 14 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 1.73 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.94

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Aalesund defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aalesund scores more

44%

level

22%

Stabaek scores more

34%

Aalesund at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Hanche-Olsen

Stabaek · D

7.7

Match Events

7'

K. Kinoshita↳ H. Vetlesen

19'

26'

42'

51'

60'

O. Edvardsen↳ R. Gall

64'

E. Botheim← K. Kinoshita

64'

J. Isaksen← O. Edvardsen

70'

J. Hatlehol← S. Sno

76'

D. Grétarsson← S. Haugen

87'

P. Larsen← N. Castro

87'

A. Hanche-OlsenPenalty

88'

I. Uzochukwu← S. Nordli

88'

P. Vogt← H. Vetlesen

88'

N. Jenssen← M. Solheim

90'

Erik Botheim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AalesundStabaek

Overview

62%Possession38%

16Total Shots12

3Corners3

19Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots12

4On Target4

7Off Target3

5Blocked5

5Inside Box11

11Outside Box1

Passing

62%Possession38%

539Total Passes320

441Accurate Passes230

82%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2