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Aalesund II vs Hødd II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hødd II
Hødd II
9/9/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 20Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aalesund II57%
×Draw20%
Hødd II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
2.35
Hødd II
1.48

Aalesund II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
1.63
Hødd II
1.00

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.95
Hødd II
3.08

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
Hødd II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Hødd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
76%
Aalesund II or Hødd II
80%
Draw or Hødd II
43%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
35%
Hødd II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
90%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
68%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
41%
Hødd II 1+ goals
77%
Hødd II 2+ goals
43%
Hødd II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
70%
Hødd II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Hødd II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 1.63 + Hødd II defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.35

Hødd II attack 1.00 + Aalesund II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Aalesund II scores more
57%
level
20%
Hødd II scores more
24%

Aalesund II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Aalesund II 3–1 Hødd II

Aalesund II beat Hødd II 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 9, 2024.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.