Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aalesund II vs Hødd II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hødd II
Hødd II
H. M. Melland 90+1' (pen)
E. Leandersson 75'
D. Bubahe 10'
M. Mulac 55'
7/11/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 14Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Aalesund II60%
×Draw18%
Hødd II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
2.86
Hødd II
1.77

Aalesund II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 26 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
2.84
Hødd II
1.73

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.81
Hødd II
2.88

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
Hødd II+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Hødd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
77%
Aalesund II or Hødd II
82%
Draw or Hødd II
40%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
40%
Hødd II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
94%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
77%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
53%
Hødd II 1+ goals
83%
Hødd II 2+ goals
53%
Hødd II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
72%
Hødd II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.81 · 31 matches

Hødd II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 2.84 + Hødd II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.86

Hødd II attack 1.73 + Aalesund II defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Aalesund II scores more
60%
level
18%
Hødd II scores more
23%

Aalesund II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
D. Bubahe
55'
M. Mulac
75'
E. Leandersson
90+1'
H. M. MellandPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aalesund II 3 – 1 Hødd II

Aalesund II beat Hødd II 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on July 11, 2022.

Goals: D. Bubahe (10'), M. Mulac (55'), E. Leandersson (75'), H. M. Melland (90+1' pen).

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.