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AaB II vs Lystrup — League #126 2026

AaB II
AaB II
FT
1 – 1
Lystrup
Lystrup
6/4/2016League #126League #126 · Round 24AaB's Anlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AaB II48%
×Draw23%
Lystrup29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AaB II
1.78
Lystrup
1.34

AaB II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

AaB II
1.56
Lystrup
1.25

allows per match

AaB II
1.44
Lystrup
2.00

finishing

AaB II+0.00on par
Lystrup+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AaB II ↓

Lystrup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

AaB II or draw
71%
AaB II or Lystrup
77%
Draw or Lystrup
52%

Winning margin

AaB II wins by 2+
26%
Lystrup wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AaB II 1+ goals
83%
AaB II 2+ goals
53%
AaB II 3+ goals
26%
Lystrup 1+ goals
74%
Lystrup 2+ goals
39%
Lystrup 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

AaB II (draw refunded)
62%
Lystrup (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AaB II at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Lystrup away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AaB II attack 1.56 + Lystrup defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Lystrup attack 1.25 + AaB II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AaB II scores more
48%
level
23%
Lystrup scores more
29%

AaB II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AaB II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AaB II 1 – 1 Lystrup

AaB II and Lystrup drew 1-1 in League #126 on June 4, 2016.

The match was played at AaB's Anlæg in Aalborg.