Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AA Iguaçu vs PSTC Procopense — Paranaense - 2 2025

AA Iguaçu
AA Iguaçu
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
PSTC Procopense
PSTC Procopense
Felipe Cabeleira 83'
Flavio Rene 9'
5/18/2025Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AA Iguaçu52%
×Draw25%
PSTC Procopense23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AA Iguaçu
1.63
PSTC Procopense
1.00

AA Iguaçu creates 63% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

AA Iguaçu
1.50
PSTC Procopense
0.50

allows per match

AA Iguaçu
1.50
PSTC Procopense
1.75

finishing

AA Iguaçu+0.00on par
PSTC Procopense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AA Iguaçu ↓

PSTC Procopense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AA Iguaçu or draw
77%
AA Iguaçu or PSTC Procopense
75%
Draw or PSTC Procopense
48%

Winning margin

AA Iguaçu wins by 2+
28%
PSTC Procopense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AA Iguaçu 1+ goals
80%
AA Iguaçu 2+ goals
48%
AA Iguaçu 3+ goals
22%
PSTC Procopense 1+ goals
63%
PSTC Procopense 2+ goals
26%
PSTC Procopense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)
69%
PSTC Procopense (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AA Iguaçu at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

PSTC Procopense away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AA Iguaçu attack 1.50 + PSTC Procopense defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

PSTC Procopense attack 0.50 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AA Iguaçu scores more
52%
level
25%
PSTC Procopense scores more
23%

AA Iguaçu at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AA Iguaçu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Flavio Rene
83'
Felipe Cabeleira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AA Iguaçu vs PSTC Procopense

AA Iguaçu beat PSTC Procopense 2-0 in Paranaense - 2 on May 18, 2025.

Goals: Flavio Rene (9'), Felipe Cabeleira (83').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira in União da Vitória, Paraná.