AA Iguaçu 2–2 PSTC Procopense: Result & Stats

AA Iguaçu

FT

2 – 2

PSTC Procopense

9/11/2021

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

AA Iguaçu45%

×Draw26%

PSTC Procopense30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AA IguaçuExpected goals in this matchPSTC Procopense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.17

AA Iguaçu

1.50

PSTC Procopense

1.17

AA Iguaçu creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

AA Iguaçu

1.50

PSTC Procopense

1.00

allows per match

AA Iguaçu

1.33

PSTC Procopense

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AA Iguaçu+0.00on par

PSTC Procopense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AA Iguaçu ↓

PSTC Procopense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AA Iguaçu or draw

70%

AA Iguaçu or PSTC Procopense

74%

Draw or PSTC Procopense

55%

Winning margin

AA Iguaçu wins by 2+

22%

PSTC Procopense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AA Iguaçu 1+ goals

78%

AA Iguaçu 2+ goals

44%

AA Iguaçu 3+ goals

19%

PSTC Procopense 1+ goals

69%

PSTC Procopense 2+ goals

33%

PSTC Procopense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)

60%

PSTC Procopense (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AA Iguaçu at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

PSTC Procopense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AA Iguaçu attack 1.50 + PSTC Procopense defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

PSTC Procopense attack 1.00 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AA Iguaçu scores more

45%

level

26%

PSTC Procopense scores more

30%

AA Iguaçu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AA Iguaçu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff