A. Italiano 3–1 Union Espanola: Result & Stats

A. Italiano

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Union Espanola

2/6/2025

Copa Chile · Group Stage - 3Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

A. Italiano36%

×Draw27%

Union Espanola37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

A. ItalianoExpected goals in this matchUnion Espanola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.25

A. Italiano

1.22

Union Espanola

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

1.39

creates per match

1.45

1.06

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

A. Italiano

1.39

Union Espanola

1.45

allows per match

A. Italiano

1.06

Union Espanola

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

A. Italiano+0.00on par

Union Espanola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

A. Italiano ↓

Union Espanola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

A. Italiano or draw

63%

A. Italiano or Union Espanola

73%

Draw or Union Espanola

64%

Winning margin

A. Italiano wins by 2+

15%

Union Espanola wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

A. Italiano 1+ goals

70%

A. Italiano 2+ goals

34%

A. Italiano 3+ goals

12%

Union Espanola 1+ goals

71%

Union Espanola 2+ goals

36%

Union Espanola 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

A. Italiano (draw refunded)

49%

Union Espanola (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

A. Italiano at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Union Espanola away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

A. Italiano attack 1.39 + Union Espanola defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.22

Union Espanola attack 1.45 + A. Italiano defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

A. Italiano scores more

36%

level

27%

Union Espanola scores more

37%

Union Espanola at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Union Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff