A. Italiano vs Union Espanola — Primera División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 120+ matches
A. Italiano45%
Union Espanola30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
A. Italiano creates 27% more chances
Season form · 128 home / 120 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
A. Italiano ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
A. Italiano at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.23 · 128 matches
Union Espanola away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.55 · 120 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
A. Italiano attack 1.54 + Union Espanola defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54
Union Espanola attack 1.19 + A. Italiano defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
A. Italiano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "A. Italiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
U. Catolica
Colo Colo
HuachipatoUnion Espanola
San Luis
Antofagasta
O'Higgins
Deportes Iquique
Everton de Vina
Universidad de Chile
Union La Calera
Palestino
Deportes Temuco
Universidad de ConcepcionA. Italiano
Curico UnidoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
A. Italiano host Union Espanola on Sunday, 11 August 2024 at 16:30. The match is part of the Primera División 2018/2019 season.
Primera División: A. Italiano 1–1 Union Espanola
A. Italiano and Union Espanola drew 1-1 in Primera División on August 11, 2024.
The match was played at Estadio El Teniente in Rancagua.