Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

3 de Febrero vs 24 de Setiembre — Division Intermedia 2018

3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
24 de Setiembre
24 de Setiembre
10/9/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 30Estadio Antonio Aranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

3 de Febrero47%
×Draw25%
24 de Setiembre28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3 de Febrero
1.54
24 de Setiembre
1.13

3 de Febrero creates 36% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 15 away

creates per match

3 de Febrero
1.28
24 de Setiembre
1.00

allows per match

3 de Febrero
1.26
24 de Setiembre
1.80

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par
24 de Setiembre+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

24 de Setiembre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw
72%
3 de Febrero or 24 de Setiembre
75%
Draw or 24 de Setiembre
53%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+
24%
24 de Setiembre wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals
79%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
45%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
20%
24 de Setiembre 1+ goals
68%
24 de Setiembre 2+ goals
31%
24 de Setiembre 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
63%
24 de Setiembre (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches

24 de Setiembre away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.28 + 24 de Setiembre defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.54

24 de Setiembre attack 1.00 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

3 de Febrero scores more
47%
level
25%
24 de Setiembre scores more
28%

3 de Febrero at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "3 de Febrero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 3 de Febrero vs 24 de Setiembre

3 de Febrero beat 24 de Setiembre 3-0 in Division Intermedia on October 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Aranda in Ciudad del Este.