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24 de Setiembre vs 3 de Febrero — Division Intermedia 2018

24 de Setiembre
24 de Setiembre
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
7/2/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 15Estadio Próculo Cortázar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

24 de Setiembre39%
×Draw25%
3 de Febrero35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

24 de Setiembre
1.43
3 de Febrero
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 78 away

creates per match

24 de Setiembre
1.53
3 de Febrero
1.03

allows per match

24 de Setiembre
1.67
3 de Febrero
1.32

finishing

24 de Setiembre+0.00on par
3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

24 de Setiembre ↓

3 de Febrero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

24 de Setiembre or draw
65%
24 de Setiembre or 3 de Febrero
75%
Draw or 3 de Febrero
61%

Winning margin

24 de Setiembre wins by 2+
18%
3 de Febrero wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

24 de Setiembre 1+ goals
76%
24 de Setiembre 2+ goals
42%
24 de Setiembre 3+ goals
17%
3 de Febrero 1+ goals
74%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
39%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

24 de Setiembre (draw refunded)
52%
3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

24 de Setiembre at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

24 de Setiembre attack 1.53 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

3 de Febrero attack 1.03 + 24 de Setiembre defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

24 de Setiembre scores more
39%
level
25%
3 de Febrero scores more
35%

24 de Setiembre at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "24 de Setiembre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: 24 de Setiembre 1–2 3 de Febrero

3 de Febrero beat 24 de Setiembre 2-1 in Division Intermedia on July 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Próculo Cortázar in Areguá.