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12 Bingölspor vs Ağrı 1970 — League #553 2026

12 Bingölspor
12 Bingölspor
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ağrı 1970
Ağrı 1970
3/11/2026League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 17Bingöl Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

12 Bingölspor49%
×Draw27%
Ağrı 197024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

12 Bingölspor
1.40
Ağrı 1970
0.90

12 Bingölspor creates 56% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

12 Bingölspor
2.00
Ağrı 1970
0.80

allows per match

12 Bingölspor
1.00
Ağrı 1970
0.80

finishing

12 Bingölspor+0.00on par
Ağrı 1970+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

12 Bingölspor ↓

Ağrı 1970 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

12 Bingölspor or draw
76%
12 Bingölspor or Ağrı 1970
73%
Draw or Ağrı 1970
51%

Winning margin

12 Bingölspor wins by 2+
24%
Ağrı 1970 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

12 Bingölspor 1+ goals
75%
12 Bingölspor 2+ goals
41%
12 Bingölspor 3+ goals
17%
Ağrı 1970 1+ goals
59%
Ağrı 1970 2+ goals
23%
Ağrı 1970 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

12 Bingölspor (draw refunded)
67%
Ağrı 1970 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

12 Bingölspor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Ağrı 1970 away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

12 Bingölspor attack 2.00 + Ağrı 1970 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ağrı 1970 attack 0.80 + 12 Bingölspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

12 Bingölspor scores more
49%
level
27%
Ağrı 1970 scores more
24%

12 Bingölspor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "12 Bingölspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #553: 12 Bingölspor 2–2 Ağrı 1970

12 Bingölspor and Ağrı 1970 drew 2-2 in League #553 on March 11, 2026.

The match was played at Bingöl Şehir Stadyumu in Bingöl.